US Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Nears November 2023 Low

US Dollar Outlook: AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair is edging closer to its November 2023 low of 0.6318, retracing from gains made earlier in the week. The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision may significantly influence the exchange rate, as there are expectations that the central bank will continue to ease its restrictive monetary policy.

US Dollar Forecast: Billboard for AUD/USD Nearing November 2023 Low

The AUD/USD has fallen to a new monthly low of 0.6333, indicating a formation of lower highs and lows. The exchange rate is likely to follow the downward trend reflected in the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 0.6545, maintaining its position below this key level. Participate in an insightful Weekly Fundamental Market Outlook webinar where real-time queries and market analyses can enhance your understanding.

US Economic Calendar

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is predicted to lower US interest rates by an additional 25 basis points in their final meeting for 2024. As the Fed signals a potential stabilization of its policy for 2025, concerns arise as the unemployment rate remains significantly elevated compared to the previous year. As the Fed continues to adjust its position, the US dollar may face headwinds. However, should Chairman Jerome Powell and his team indicate a slower approach to unwinding restrictive measures, this may keep AUD/USD weighed down.

AUD/USD Price Chart – Daily

• The AUD/USD movement is approaching the November 2023 low (0.6318) after reaching a new monthly low of 0.6333. A decline below the 2023 low of 0.6270 could lead the pair to 0.6240 based on a 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
• The next notable level to monitor is around 0.6130, which corresponds to a 23.6% Fibonacci retracement. However, the pair might break the recent pattern of lower highs and lows if it fails to test the November 2023 low.
• A recovery above the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) levels would put the monthly high of 0.6515 back on the radar, and a sustained break above 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) could shift focus toward the 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) region.

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--- Compiled by a Financial Strategist