Japanese Yen Technical Outlook: USD/JPY Analysis for Daily and 240-Minute Trade Levels
- USD/JPY bounces off critical support as December begins - the monthly range is forming.
- Current USD/JPY uptrend ventures close to significant downtrend resistance, indicating potential for price correction or reversal.
- Key resistance levels identified at 151.74/99, 153.02/40, and 154.34; crucial support observed at 148.73-149.60, 146.14/65, and 144.17/63.
The US Dollar has surged by more than 2.1% following its recent monthly low against the Japanese Yen, as USD/JPY has rallied off essential support levels at the beginning of December. This upward movement is now facing technical resistance correlating with the November downtrend, with important US inflation metrics scheduled for release tomorrow, setting the stage for critical market dynamics.
Technical Analysis Overview:
In previous analysis, we pointed out USD/JPY testing median support lines, highlighting that, “the immediate focus remains on breakout opportunities around the weekly opening-range for directional guidance, with downside risks notable beneath the 155 mark.” The currency pair subsequently broke below this threshold, experiencing a steep decline of nearly 5.2% from the November peak.
The recent downturn found support at the 2022 weekly closing high / 2023 high-week closing area, specifically within the 148.73-149.60 range. Presently, market attention pivots back to this recovery phase, with bulls probing resistance levels around 151.74/99—an area characterized by the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the November downturn, alongside significant closing points from the past two years and the 200-day moving average.
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY Daily
Chart Prepared by Market Analysts
Japanese Yen Price Chart – USD/JPY 240min
Chart Prepared by Market Analysts
A detailed review of the USD/JPY movements illustrates that the pair is navigating within a descending pitchfork that has been delineated from the highs observed in November, with notable resistance at the upper parallel located at 151.74/99. A breach above this level could open the pathway to additional resistance near the May low-day close/61.8% retracement at 153.02/40, further supported by the November high-day reversal at 154.34, with adherence above this level suggesting a significant trend reversal may be in motion.
Conversely, a breakthrough below the critical support area could reignite the momentum of the November downtrend, aiming for the median-line situated at approximately 148, with subsequent targets identified at 146.14/65 and the low-day close from August / the low-week close from January at 144.17/63. These levels remain critical for potential exhaustion signs and price reversals, should they be reached.
Conclusion: USD/JPY demonstrates a rebound off vital technical support as December commences, with the advance now encountering its initial significant resistance level. Market participants should closely monitor for potential price inflections at these junctures. From a trading perspective, vigilance around the breakout of the weekly opening range (149.60-151.99) is essential for strategic insights, particularly as recovery may remain tenuous below the 200-day moving average.
With key US inflation data due for release tomorrow, maintaining adaptability in trading strategies leading up to this event is prudent. Observe the weekly close for further directional guidance, and consult the latest insights in comprehensive market forecasts for detailed USD/JPY technical levels.
USD/JPY Key Economic Data Releases
Economic Calendar - Current developments and impending event risks impacting market dynamics.
Active Short-term Technical Charts Overview
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