Gold Price Forecast: Bullion Stays Below Pre-Election Levels

Gold Price Analysis: XAU/USD Update

The gold market has recently experienced a pullback from a notable weekly peak of $2726, disrupting the consecutive pattern of higher highs and lows. This indicates that gold may navigate within a defined range for November, particularly if it aligns with the flattening trajectory of the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) set at $2671.

Current Gold Price Trends: Below Pre-Election Levels

Gold prices remain under pressure, staying below levels established prior to the U.S. elections, as the recent gains from earlier this week are being retraced. The precious metal may enter a phase of consolidation as market participants await the Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement, particularly as it seems to retrace from the November high of $2762.

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Upcoming US Economic Indicators

As we look forward, the Fed's final meeting of 2024 could have substantial ramifications for gold prices, presenting an alternative investment amid fiat currency fluctuations. The potential for a policy misstep may enhance bullion's allure, especially with expectations of an additional 25 basis point rate cut, despite the incremental rise in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI), which stood at 2.7% in November compared to 2.6% the previous month.

The current climate indicates that divisions within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) could bolster gold prices, as the Fed continues to relax its strict policies. Nonetheless, gold may not emulate the bullish momentum seen earlier this year given the flattening trend of the 50-Day SMA at $2671.

XAU/USD Price Chart Analysis

Recent price movements for gold have interrupted a series of higher highs and lows, particularly as attempts to breach the $2730 level (100% Fibonacci extension) have failed. A dip below the $2630 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) and $2660 (23.6% Fibonacci extension) thresholds could signify a potential test of the monthly low at $2614.

• A decisive break below $2590 (100% Fibonacci extension) might shift focus to the $2550 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) level. However, gold may maintain a range-bound structure if it holds above the November low of $2537.
• To establish a bullish sentiment, a close above $2730 (100% Fibonacci extension) is necessary, which would bring the November high of $2762 into play. Surpassing $2790 (50% Fibonacci extension) could signal a rally towards $2850 (61.8% Fibonacci extension).

Additional Market Insights

Review of the Canadian Dollar: USD/CAD Approaches New Yearly Highs.

GBP/USD Analysis: Key Levels Amid December's Opening Activity.

AUD/USD Overview: Declining to Fresh Yearly Lows.

US Dollar Update: USD/JPY Surges Ahead of CPI Data Release.

--- Composed by David Song, Senior Strategist