Australian Dollar Forecast: AUD/USD Hits New Yearly Low - Insights and Analysis

AUD/USD: Latest Trends and Analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD) has demonstrated notable volatility, with the AUD/USD exchange rate recently surpassing the August low of 0.6349, culminating in a fresh yearly low of 0.6337. The current trajectory suggests a potential test of the November 2023 low of 0.6318, as the pair continues to form lower highs and lows.

AUD/USD Faces Continued Weakness

After the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announced its decision to maintain the cash rate at 4.35%, the AUD struggled to maintain its position. Signals from the RBA suggest an increasing confidence in reaching sustainable inflation targets, but economic data from Australia remains critical.

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The prospect of further interest rate adjustments remains on the table. Data from Australia, particularly the upcoming employment report, is crucial, as it is anticipated to reveal a strong labor market, potentially influencing the RBA's inflation strategies aggressively.

Australia Economic Calendar

In the upcoming month, Australia is projected to add 25,000 jobs in November, building on the prior month's gain of 15,900. A favorable jobs report could bolster the Australian Dollar, elevating expectations of further RBA actions to address inflation.

Despite potential employment gains mitigating the AUD's recent depreciation, ongoing bearish momentum could see the exchange rate challenge the November 2023 low of 0.6318.

AUD/USD Price Chart Analysis

• The AUD/USD pair has reached a new yearly low of 0.6337 after closing beneath the 0.6380 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6410 (50% Fibonacci extension) range for the first time this year. A breach below the November 2023 low of 0.6318 could open up targets in the 0.6240 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6270 (2023 low) vicinity.
• The next significant resistance level appears at 0.6130 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement), although a lack of selling pressure beneath the November low may keep the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above oversold conditions.
• For a shift in the current bearish trend, a break above the 0.6380 to 0.6410 zone is necessary. A sustained move above the 0.6510 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.6520 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) area would refocus attention on the 0.6590 (38.2% Fibonacci extension) to 0.6600 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) range.

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